[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (21 January 26) issued 0035 UT on 21 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 21 JANUARY 2026 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (14 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
14 Jan   89      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Jan   87      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Jan   83      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

17 Jan   87      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

18 Jan   96      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Jan   95      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

20 Jan  -16      Poor              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 55% during local night.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 60% during local day.
      Depressed by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 55% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

2. FORECAST (21 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY) 
MUFS: MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be 25-50%
depressed on UT day 20-Jan due to ongoing geomagnetic activity.
MUFs are expected to be 15-20% depressed on 22-Jan, before 
recovering to near predicted monthly values on 23-Jan.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on other days.

Propagation conditions: Fair to poor on 21-Jan. Normal to fair on 22-Jan. 
Otherwise normal. Shortwave fadeouts are possible throughout the week.

T index: 89
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 19 January 
and is current for 19-21 Jan. ASWFC HF Communications Warning 
13 was issued on 20 January and is current for 20-21 Jan.

3. OUTLOOK (28 JANUARY - 27 FEBRUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
29 Jan,  4 Feb,  14-18 Feb,  25 Feb

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au