[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (14 January 26) issued 0238 UT on 14 Jan 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 14 JANUARY 2026 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (07 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
07 Jan  144      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Jan  115      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Jan  103      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

10 Jan  100      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Jan   19      Poor              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

12 Jan   44      Poor              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

13 Jan   50      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  89

2. FORECAST (14 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY) 
MUFS are expected to trend towards predicted monthly values over 
14-16 Jan. MUFs may become briefly depressed after local dawn on
17 Jan, with depressions likely over 18-20 Jan. MUFs will again
trend toward predicted monthly values thereafter.

Propagation conditions: Fair-Normal on 17 Jan,  19-20 Jan. Fair 
on 18 Jan. Otherwise normal. SWFs possible throughout the week.

T index: 89
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 11 January 
and is current for 12-14 Jan. ASWFC HF Communications Warning 
8 was issued on 13 January and is current for 13-14 Jan.

3. OUTLOOK (21 JANUARY - 20 FEBRUARY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
17-20 Jan,  26-27 Jan 08-10 Feb, 13-Feb

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au