[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (11 February 26) issued 0232 UT on 11 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 11 FEBRUARY 2026 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
04 Feb  128      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Feb  121      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Feb  127      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Feb  103      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Feb   98      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

09 Feb   94      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

10 Feb   92      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

2. FORECAST (11 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY) 
MUFS: 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted
monthly values for most of the week. Mild depressions are possible
on 14-16 Feb, particularly in the southern region, due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole currently approaching a geoeffective position.

Propagation conditions: 
Propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal. There
is a chance of sporadic E during local night hours. Mild degradations
are possible over 14-15 Feb due to potential geomagnetic storm
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible throughout the week.

T index: 88

ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 11 February 
and is current for 11-13 Feb.

3. OUTLOOK (18 FEBRUARY - 20 MARCH)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
 24-26 Feb,  13-15 Mar

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au