[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (04 February 26) issued 0317 UT on 04 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 04 FEBRUARY 2026 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (28 JANUARY - 03 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
28 Jan  110      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Jan   76      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

30 Jan   93      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

31 Jan  116      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Feb  132      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

02 Feb  121      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Feb  115      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  88

2. FORECAST (04 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY) 
MUFS: 
Generally near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
Possible depressions on 06-07 Feb due to anticipated 
geomagnetic activity on 05-06 Feb. 

Propagation conditions: 
Mostly normal with the chance of degradations on 06-07 Feb
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts
probable throughout the week.

T index: 88
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 2 February 
and is current for 3-5 Feb.

3. OUTLOOK (11 FEBRUARY - 13 MARCH)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
13-14 Feb,  19-20 Feb,  24-25 Feb,  05-07 Mar, 11-13 Mar

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au