[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (03 September 25) issued 0209 UT on 03 Sep 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 03 SEPTEMBER 2025 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (27 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
27 Aug  102      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

28 Aug  104      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Aug  112      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

30 Aug  114      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

31 Aug  122      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Sep  126      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

02 Sep  130      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  92

2. FORECAST (03 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values for 
northern Australia and depressed by 40% for southern Australia 
on 03-Sep. MUFs are forecast to be 15% enhanced on 04-Sep. MUFs 
are expected to be generally near predicted monthly values for 
the remainder of the week, however mild depressions are possible 
from 05-08 Sep due to expected geomagnetic activity from a 
recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole. 
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

Propagation conditions: Fair on 03 Sep,  05-08 Sep. Otherwise normal. 

T index: 92
ASWFC HF Communications Warning 81 was issued on 3 September 
and is current for 3 Sep only. ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 
82 was issued on 3 September and is current for 3-5 Sep.

3. OUTLOOK (10 SEPTEMBER - 10 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
15 Sep, 02-05 Oct.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au