[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (16 July 25) issued 0148 UT on 16 Jul 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 16 JULY 2025 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 JULY - 15 JULY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
09 Jul   82      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

10 Jul   68      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Jul   76      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Jul   72      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

13 Jul   86      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

14 Jul   73      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

15 Jul   78      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July: 104

2. FORECAST (16 JULY - 22 JULY) 
MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values to 20-30% depressed over
16-18 Jul.
Improving towards monthly predicted values by the end of the week, however may
still be
mildly depressed.

Propagation conditions: Normal to mildly degraded over 16-18 Jul returning to
near normal
over the second half of the week. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

T index: 104

3. OUTLOOK (23 JULY - 22 AUGUST)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
26-29 Jul, 12-14 Aug, 19-22 Aug

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au