[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (11 September 24) issued 0234 UT on 11 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Wed Sep 11 12:34:51 AEST 2024

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 11 SEPTEMBER 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
04 Sep  173      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Sep  163      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Sep  163      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-40% during local night and after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

07 Sep  155      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 105% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

08 Sep  161      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

09 Sep  164      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

10 Sep  166      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 117

2. FORECAST (11 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to mildly depressed over 11-13 Sep due to expected
geomagnetic activity from anticipated impacts from CMEs
first observed on 08 and 10-Sep. Following this activity
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to 20% enhanced for the rest of the week, with the 
strongest enhancements observed during local night.

Propagation conditions: 
Mildly degraded conditions, particularly at high
latitudes, are expected for 11-13 Sep due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal conditions are 
expected for the rest of the week. 

Shortwave fadeouts are probable over the entire week.

T index: 117
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 99 was issued on 9 September 
and is current for 9-11 Sep.

3. OUTLOOK (18 SEPTEMBER - 18 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
 25-28 Sep,  09-11 Oct, 

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au