[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (04 September 24) issued 0124 UT on 04 Sep 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 04 SEPTEMBER 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (28 AUGUST - 03 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
28 Aug  159      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Aug  160      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

30 Aug  160      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

31 Aug  133      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
      Depressed 15% during local night hours, recovering
      after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

01 Sep  150      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 Sep  159      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Sep  166      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15-20% during local night and after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September: 117

2. FORECAST (04 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to
15-35% enhanced this week.

Propagation conditions: Normal propagation conditions expected.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

T index: 117
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 97 was issued on 3 September 
and is current for 4-6 Sep.

3. OUTLOOK (11 SEPTEMBER - 11 OCTOBER)
Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
18 Sep,  24 Sep,  27 Sep,  4 Oct

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au