[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (20 November 24) issued 0054 UT on 20 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 20 NOVEMBER 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (13 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
13 Nov  155      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Nov  157      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Nov  130      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

16 Nov  100      Fair         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Nov  121      Fair-Normal (Fair-Poor Northern hemisphere)     
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Nov  142      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Nov  129      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 119

Comment: moderately degraded HF propagation conditions observed 
during local night on 16-Nov in the Australian region. On 17-Nov
northern hemisphere middle latitude ionospheric frequencies
of support were depressed 30-50% at times.

2. FORECAST (20 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: MUFs 15% depressed to near predicted monthly values 20-Nov.
Chance of occasional periods of 15% depressions and local night
degradation for the southern Australian region during 22-24 Nov due to 
possible mild geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole wind streams. 
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on other days.

Propagation conditions: Fair to normal 20-Nov, Normal 21-Nov, 
fair to normal 22-24 Nov. Then normal for rest of week. 
SWFs possible during the  week.

T index: 119
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 135 was issued on 17 November 
and is current for 18-20 Nov.

3. OUTLOOK (27 NOVEMBER - 27 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
7 Dec

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au