[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (06 November 24) issued 0044 UT on 06 Nov 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 06 NOVEMBER 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (30 OCTOBER - 05 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
30 Oct  130      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced at Darwin.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed
      at Casey and Davis of approximately 1dB as event declines.

31 Oct  136      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Absorption observed first half of UT day then easing.

01 Nov  144      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

02 Nov  139      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Nov   97      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Nov  152      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced 40% during local night at Darwin.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Nov  165      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 119

Comment: Depressed/degraded conditions were observed on 31 Oct for 
the southern Australian region. Active solar region AR3883 produced
a lot of this weeks solar flare activity with frequent shortwave 
fadeouts. This region remains magnetically complex and further 
flares are expected. Also, a new region may rotate onto the solar
disk in the next 24 hours near the solar equator. Consequently, there is
an increased risk of a CME induced geomagnetic storm/ionospheric 
frequency depression this week.

2. FORECAST (06 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.

Propagation conditions: Normal. Frequent SWFs probable all week.

T index: 145
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 128 was issued on 4 November 
and is current for 4-6 Nov.

3. OUTLOOK (13 NOVEMBER - 13 DECEMBER)
Mildly Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
22 Nov, 2 Dec,  9 Dec

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au