[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (24 July 24) issued 0043 UT on 24 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 24 JULY 2024 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (17 JULY - 23 JULY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
17 Jul  143      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

18 Jul  141      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

19 Jul  139      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

20 Jul  128      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

21 Jul  143      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

22 Jul  138      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Jul  146      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July: 118

Comment: Generally good HF conditions observed this week, with
enhanced MUFs and a reasonably quiet geomagnetic field. Minor
shortwave fadeouts, impacting lower HF frequencies, were 
observed 14/0408-0427UT and 22/0404-0408UT. High latitude/polar 
region HF communications may have experienced mild (<1db) absorption 
due to an S1-Minor solar radiation storm on 23-Jul. 

2. FORECAST (24 JULY - 30 JULY) 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.

Propagation conditions: Normal. Isolated minor fadeouts
are expected during the week impacting lower frequencies 
of HF communication.

T index: 125
ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 77 was issued on 
22 July and is current for 24-25 Jul. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 78 was issued on 22 July and is current for 23-25 Jul.

3. OUTLOOK (31 JULY - 30 AUGUST)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
No significant 27 day recurrent patterns of geomagnetic activity are 
currently evident.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au