[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (17 May 23) issued 0041 UT on 17 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 17 MAY 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (10 MAY - 16 MAY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
10 May  119      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

11 May  109      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 May  107      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 May  108      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 May  106      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 May  104      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 May  101      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  87

2. FORECAST (17 MAY - 23 MAY) 
MUFS:
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced throughout the week.

Propagation conditions:
Normal HF propagation conditions are expected throughout the
week. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.

T index: 100

3. OUTLOOK (24 MAY - 23 JUNE)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
24-26 May, 02-04 Jun,  18-22 Jun.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au