[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (22 February 23) issued 0103 UT on 22 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 22 FEBRUARY 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (15 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
15 Feb  152      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30-55% during local night and after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45-50% during local night and after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-70% during local night and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Feb   80      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

17 Feb  111      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Feb  112      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

19 Feb  132      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-85%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Feb  117      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

21 Feb  134      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-35% over the UT day.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-40% during local night and after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  75

2. FORECAST (22 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY) 
MUFS: MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 
15% enhanced throughout the week.

Propagation conditions: Mostly normal. SWFs are probable early in week.
Degradations are possible later in the week due to an equatorial
coronal hole. 

T index: 75
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 21 February 
and is current for 22-24 Feb.

3. OUTLOOK (01 MARCH - 31 MARCH)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
14-15 Mar,  21 Mar

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au