[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (15 February 23) issued 0055 UT on 15 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 15 FEBRUARY 2023 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (08 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
08 Feb   91      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Feb   76      Fair              
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Feb  100      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Feb  121      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Feb  126      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30-55%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Feb  121      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 65% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

14 Feb  145      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
      Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  75

2. FORECAST (15 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY) 
MUFS: 
 Mild depressions are possible from local night 15-Feb to the UT-day
 16-Feb due to possible geomagnetic activity from a recent mild 
 glancing impact from a CME. 
 MUFs on 17-21 Feb are expected to be at monthly predicted values
 to 15% enhanced. 

Propagation conditions: 
 Disturbed propagation conditions are possible from local night 
 15-Feb to the UT-day 16-Feb, especially at higher latitudes.
 Normal propagation conditions are expected for 17-21 Feb. 
 Shortwave fadeouts are possible throughout the week.

T index: 75
ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 16 was issued on 13 February 
and is current for 13-15 Feb.

3. OUTLOOK (22 FEBRUARY - 24 MARCH)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
 5-9 March

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au