[Ips-whfpr] ASWFC Weekly Prop. Report (19 October 22) issued 0034 UT on 19 Oct 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 19 OCTOBER 2022 
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (12 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
12 Oct  112      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-65%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

13 Oct  113      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% to 35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% to 50%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% to 25%..
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Oct  113      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Oct   72      Fair-Normal           
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Oct   89      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

17 Oct   68      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Oct   83      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-50%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  69

Comment: The southern Australian region MUFs were
depressed by up to 25% on 15-Oct following unexpected 
overnight geomagnetic activity induced by a solar 
coronal hole, which was considered to be at too high 
a solar latitude to induce geomagnetic activity. The
ionospheric T-index reduced later in the week as solar
EUV emission dropped with the decline in the number 
of solar regions.


2. FORECAST (19 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: Generally MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values. Degraded HF conditions in the southern 
Australian region may be experienced 24-26 Oct due to 
anticipated geomagnetic activity induced by a solar 
coronal hole currently located in the solar
southeastern quadrant.

Propagation conditions: Normal. No SWFs.

T index: 69

3. OUTLOOK (26 OCTOBER - 25 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
24-26 Oct, 30 Oct, 05,10 Nov

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au