[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (11 November 15) issued 0128 UT on 11 Nov 2015 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc]

SUBJ: SWS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED ON 11 NOVEMBER 2015 BY Sapce Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (04 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
04 Nov   22      Normal            
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% throughout the day
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Nov   15      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

06 Nov   36      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

07 Nov   59      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Depressed by 55% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

08 Nov  -33      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 55% during local day.
      Depressed by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

09 Nov   33      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Nov    9      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  66

2. FORECAST (11 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: Depressed 30-40% on 11-13 Nov
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed on other days.

Propagation conditions: Fair-poor on 11-13 Nov. Otherwise normal-fair. SWFs
unlikely.

T index: 66
IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 10 November and 
is current for 11-13 Nov.

3. OUTLOOK (18 NOVEMBER - 18 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
29-Nov to 10-Dec,  13-15 Dec.

PLEASE NOTE:
Space weather conditions can frequently be determined by short 
timescale events that cannot be forecast a week in advance,
particularly at solar maximum.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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