[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (20 October 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/0200Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (13 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
13 Oct   61      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


14 Oct   18      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


15 Oct   29      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods of minor 
      to significant depressions and degradations over the 
      UT day.


16 Oct   40      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted montly values during local day.
      Depressed 30 % to near predicted monthly vlues
      during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods
      of depressions and degradations. 


17 Oct   47      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values
      during local day, depressed by 25% 
      during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


18 Oct   45      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


19 Oct   53      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30
2. FORECAST (20 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: Moderate enhancements expected for most of the week with possible
disturbance on 23-24 Oct.
Propagation conditions: Mostly normal. No SWFs. Possible degraded 
conditions 23-24 Oct.
T index:   45

3. OUTLOOK (27 OCTOBER - 26 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
07-10 Nov, 25-26 Nov.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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