[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (17 September 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/0200Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (10 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
10 Sep   76      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values.
      Some absorption and spread F observed.

11 Sep   51      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Sep   55      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spreead F observed.

13 Sep   57      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Sep   48      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Sep   57      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed late in UT day.

16 Sep   66      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values first half UT day.
      Spread and absorption observed second half UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57
2. FORECAST (17 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed 15% on 17-18 Sep, then improving.
Propagation conditions: Fair-Poor 17-18 Sep, Fair 21 Sep
T index:   40  17-18 Sep
	   60  rest of week

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 64 was issued on 16 September 
and is current for interval 17-18 September. Depressed conditions
forecast due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced
geomagnetic activity. Depressions expected to be mostly confined
to southern Aus/NZ region with northern Aus possibly experiencing
brief depressions after local dawn. Degraded local night comms 
expected for this interval. A shortwave fadeout was observed
2159 to 2319UT on 16 Sep impacting western pacific area. Solar
region that produced fadeout is departing solar disk.
3. OUTLOOK (24 SEPTEMBER - 24 OCTOBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
24-Sep to 25-Sep,29-Sep to 01-Oct,04-Oct to 08-Oct,11-Oct,14-Oct to 23-Oct.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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