[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (12 November 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/0200Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (05 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
05 Nov   99      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

06 Nov   87      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

07 Nov   94      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced early in UT day, then.
      near predicted monthly values.
      Some Spread F observed.

08 Nov   90      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Nov   72      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values first half UT day.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed at Macquarie Island.
      Depressed 15% late in UT day.

10 Nov   33      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values 
      over the UT day.  Spread F and blanketing sporadic 
      E observed at some sites.

11 Nov   24      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 20% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

COMMENT: Lower than normal MUFs observed southern Aus/NZ region
10-11 Nov due to solar coronal hole wind stream induced
geomagnetic activity.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  52
2. FORECAST (12 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed 15 to 15% Southern Aus/ZN region. Near predicted monthly values
      northern Aus region. Frequent flaring and fadeouts probable.
Propagation conditions: Poor-Fair Southern Aus/NZ region, particularly after local dawn.
			Northern Aus region mostly normal.
T index:   60 Northern Aus region
	   20 Southern Aus region

COMMENT: The Earth has entered a broad coronal hole wind stream and an
extended period of lower than normal MUFS is expected for southern Aus/NZ
region. Also, several very active solar regions are due back in this coming 
forecast week. The first on 13 Nov, others on 18 Nov. Increased short
wave fadeout activity is probable this week, after the recent lull in
activity. The anticipated short wave fadeouts may have more of an impact
on customers in southern region Aus/NZ if they are already operating on a 
lower frequency due to the current moderately depressed ionospheric conditions
due to coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic activity. Mass ejection 
related disturbances may also eventuate. 
3. OUTLOOK (19 NOVEMBER - 19 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
24-Nov to 27-Nov,06-Dec to 15-Dec

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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