[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (05 November 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/0200Z NOVEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (29 OCTOBER - 04 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
29 Oct   76      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

30 Oct  -16      Poor              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 55% during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

31 Oct   11      Poor-fair         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with mild to moderated
      depressions during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event ended, increased absorption observed.

01 Nov   88      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day with periods
      of significant depressions and degradations.

02 Nov   63      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

03 Nov   66      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to deppressed upto 20%
      during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

04 Nov  101      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  52
2. FORECAST (05 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: near monthly predicted values 05-Nov, enhanced 5 to 15% from 
06 to 08-Nov, depressed 05% on 10 and 11-Nov, otherwise MUFs near normal. 
SWFs probable early in week.
Propagation conditions: Normal to fair on 05 Nov,  Fair 10 and 11-Nov,
otherwise normal. 
T index:   75
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 83 was issued on 3 November and 
is current for interval  3-5 November. 
3. OUTLOOK (12 NOVEMBER - 12 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
12-Nov to 18-Nov,20-Nov,25-Nov to 27-Nov,07-Dec to 11-Dec.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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