[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (11 June 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/0200Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (04 JUNE - 10 JUNE)
Date   T index   Conditions        
04 Jun   69      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


05 Jun   55      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values with 
      isolated extended periods of disturbance.



06 Jun   67      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 10% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of intense daytime sporadic-E.
      Extended periods of spread-F conditions.


07 Jun   68      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night/after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.


08 Jun   69      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of localised disturbance.


09 Jun   84      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Exteneded periods of disturbance. Widespread spread-F
      conditions observed. Absorption around local dawn.


10 Jun   79      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Mild overnight depressions.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Isolated overnight depressions.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance. Spread-F conditions
      observed at all stations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68
2. FORECAST (11 JUNE - 17 JUNE) 
MUFS: Mildy depressed after local dawn on 11-Jun and 16-17 Jun.
      Mild overnight depressions at mid latitudes 11-13 Jun.
      Degraded conditions at high latitudes 11-13 Jun, 
      otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early in week.
Propagation conditions: Fair 11-Jun Fair 16-17 Jun , otherwise 
			normal. SWfs probable early in week.
T index:   70

3. OUTLOOK (18 JUNE - 18 JULY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
18-25 Jun, 28-Jun to 08-Jul, 12-Jul, 14-17 Jul.
Solar active region 365 is due to return on 15-Jun. Solar active 
region 375 is due to return on 27-Jun. Both regions produced 
multiple M- and X-class flares on previous solar rotation.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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