[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (04 June 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/0200Z JUNE 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (28 MAY - 03 JUNE)
Date   T index   Conditions        
28 May   83      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

29 May   73      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night,
      Enhanced by 70% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Darwin MUfs were enhanced over 100% between 07 and 11 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

30 May   24      Poor-fair         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Absorption observed.

31 May   66      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% to near normal local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed, absorption observed early in UT day.

01 Jun   57      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Initially depressed 15-20% then recovering as day
      progressed,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and some absorption observed.

02 Jun   81      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values,
      spread F and some absorption observed.

03 Jun   65      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed, spread F and absorption observed.

COMMENT: Strong MUF depression observed 30 May. Depression
followed CME induced geomagnetic activity. Transpolar HF circuits
probably experienced increased absorption due to solar
proton events on 29 and 31 May.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  68
2. FORECAST (04 JUNE - 10 JUNE) 
MUFS: mid to high latitude MUFs expected to be mildly depressed (15%)
for most of week, due to expected continuation of coronal hole
induced geomagnetic activity.
Propagation conditions: Fair Mid to high latitudes, normal at low latitudes.
T index:   50 (mid to high latitudes)
T index:   75 (low latitudes)
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 2 June and is 
current for interval  3-5 June. 
3. OUTLOOK (11 JUNE - 11 JULY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
11-Jun to 12-Jun,16-Jun to 26-Jun,28-Jun to 08-Jul.

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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