[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (13 August 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/0200Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (06 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST)
Date   T index   Conditions        
06 Aug   95      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Aug   73      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Aug   83      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near normal.
      Blanketing spoardic E observed later in day.
      Some spread F.

09 Aug   74      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

10 Aug   70      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some blanketing sporadic E observed.

11 Aug   75      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Aug   87      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Blanketing sporadic E second half of UT day.

COMMENT: Mild degradation first 3 days of week due to
activity induced by coronal hole high speed wind stream.
Second coronal hole wind stream induced activity during
period 11-12 Aug was much milder. Anticipated flare activity
from solar regions did not eventuate.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60
2. FORECAST (13 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST) 
MUFS: mostly near predicted monthly values. Mild depressions
at mid to high latitudes possible 13 Aug and 17-18 Aug, 
briefly after local dawn.

Propagation conditions: Fair 12-13 and 16-18 Aug, otherwise good.

T index:   75

3. OUTLOOK (20 AUGUST - 19 SEPTEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
22-30 Aug,02-04 Sep,08-12 Sep

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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