[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (06 August 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/0200Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (30 JULY - 05 AUGUST)
Date   T index   Conditions        
30 Jul   53      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

31 Jul   63      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      10-15% depressions observed Christchurch and Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Aug   65      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

02 Aug   53      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed second half of UT day.

03 Aug   60      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Aug   53      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Aug   63      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced 15% early in UT day, then
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

COMMENT: degraded conditions observed early in week, local
night hours osuthern Aus/NZ region.

2. FORECAST (06 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST) 
MUFS: degraded local night HF comms quality and mildy depressed MUFs 
after local dawn expected during interval 07-09Aug for southern Aus/NZ 
region (mid to high latitudes) only. Northern Aus region MUFs expected 
to remain near predicted month values. Southern region MUFs expected 
to be near normal after 09 Aug, then becoming degraded again on 12 Aug.

Propagation conditions: Fair late 06, Fair to poor 07-09Aug , 
otherwise Fair to Normal. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
likely during week.

T index:   
50 for 07-09 Aug Southern Aus region, then 65
75 for 06-12 Aug northern Aus region

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 5 August and is current 
for interval  7-9 August. 
3. OUTLOOK (13 AUGUST - 12 SEPTEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
Mid to High latitudes only (southern Aus/NZ region)
12-Aug to 16-Aug
22-Aug to 29 Aug
05-06 Sep

PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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