[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (23 October 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/0200Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (16 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
16 Oct   97      Poor-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20-30% after local dawn, persisting into
      local day in S. Aust region.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Isolated depressions, otherwise near predicted monthly 
      values over the UT day.

17 Oct  122      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Oct  141      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

19 Oct  136      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Oct  115      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Oct  143      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Oct  133      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

COMMENT: degraded conditions observed 16 Oct.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94
2. FORECAST (23 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 24-Oct, 
mild depressions possible 26-29 Oct, otherwise MUFs near normal. 
Propagation conditions: Fair 23-Oct Fair 26-29 Oct, otherwise normal. 
SWfs probable early in week.
T index:  125

COMMENT: chance for weak solar wind shock arrival late 23 Oct.
Coronal hole induced activity possible 26-29 Oct.

3. OUTLOOK (30 OCTOBER - 29 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
30-Oct to 01-Nov,03-Nov to 06-Nov,10-Nov,23-Nov to 28-Nov.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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