[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (09 October 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/0200Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (02 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
02 Oct   82      Poor-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by greater than 30% at times during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15-30% over the UT day.


03 Oct  117      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-30% over UT day.


04 Oct  101      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 10-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


05 Oct  103      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


06 Oct  109      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


07 Oct  128      Normal-poor       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted
      monthly values.


08 Oct  108      Poor-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted monthly
      values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20-40% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  94
2. FORECAST (09 OCTOBER - 15 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: Depressed 15-30% at times 09-Oct to 10-Oct, recovering to 
near predicted to enhanced values for the remainder of the forecast period. 
Propagation conditions: Fair to normal 09-Oct to 10-Oct, otherwise normal
			to good. 
T index:  
	09-10 Oct: 110
        11-15 Oct: 135.

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 8 October
and is current for interval  8-9 October. 
3. OUTLOOK (16 OCTOBER - 15 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: 27 Oct - 5 Nov.


PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060