[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (02 October 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/0200Z OCTOBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (25 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
25 Sep  144      Normal            
MUFS:
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values


26 Sep  152      Normal            
MUFS:
15 to 30% above predicted monthly values


27 Sep  138      Normal            
MUFS:
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


28 Sep  149      Normal            
MUFS:
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


29 Sep  152      Normal            
MUFS:
10 to 30% above predicted monthly values


30 Sep  142      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
slightly above predicted monthly values


01 Oct  115      Fair              
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% during UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during UT day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-20% after local dawn
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% during UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  88
2. FORECAST (02 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER) 
MUFS: depressed 15 to 20% on 02-Oct, depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 08-Oct,  otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early in week.
Propagation conditions: Fair-Poor 02-Oct Fair 08-Oct , otherwise normal. SWfs probable early in week.
T index:  125
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 48 was issued on 1 October and is current for interval  2 October only. 
3. OUTLOOK (09 OCTOBER - 08 NOVEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
02-Oct,08-Oct to 09-Oct,14-Oct to 15-Oct.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060