[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (20 November 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/0200Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (13 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
13 Nov  114      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


14 Nov  162      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-45%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


15 Nov  144      Normal            
MUFS:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


16 Nov  127      Normal            
MUFS:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all
stations.


17 Nov  140      Normal            
MUFS:
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


18 Nov  127      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Isolated depressions of 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10 to 20% after local dawn. 


19 Nov   53      Poor-fair         
MUFS:
20 to 30% below predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91
2. FORECAST (20 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 23-Nov, possible 
depressions 24-26 Nov, otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs possible 
early in week.
Propagation conditions: Fair 23-26 Nov, otherwise normal. SWfs 
possible early in week.
T index:  110
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 19 November 
and is current for interval  19-20 November. 
3. OUTLOOK (27 NOVEMBER - 27 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
27-Nov to 03-Dec,07-Dec,17-Dec to 26-Dec.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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