[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (13 November 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/0200Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (06 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER)
Date   T index   Conditions        
06 Nov  135      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced
      15-30% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15% at times.


07 Nov  144      Normal            
MUFS:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


08 Nov  156      Normal            
MUFS:
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


09 Nov  170      Normal            
MUFS:
10 to 20% above predicted monthly values


10 Nov  168      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event, increased absorption observed.


11 Nov  150      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 5-15%.


12 Nov  129      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to slightly depressed.


Predicted Monthly T index for November:  91
2. FORECAST (13 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER) 
MUFS: Near predicted monthly values to enhanced early in week with MUFS
becoming mostly near predicted monthly values for the remainder of the week.
Propagation conditions: Normal to good early in the week with conditions
becoming mostly normal for the remainder of the week.
T index:  120
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on 11 November and is
current for interval 11-13 November, however, anticipated geomagnetic activity
and subsequent ionospheric depressions did not eventuate. 
3. OUTLOOK (20 NOVEMBER - 20 DECEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: 20-28 Nov.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060