[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (22 May 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/0200Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (15 MAY - 21 MAY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
15 May  138      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly depressed 15% at times to enhanced 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly depressed up to 15% at times to near
      predicted monthly values.

16 May  129      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

17 May  120      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

18 May  120      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

19 May  142      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

20 May  123      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed Antarctic region.

21 May  125      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
2. FORECAST (22 MAY - 28 MAY) 
MUFS: mildy depressed after local dawn on 24-May, mildy depressed 
after local dawn on 25-May,  otherwise MUFs near normal. 
Propagation conditions: Fair 24-May Fair 25-May , otherwise normal. 
SWfs probable.
T index:  135

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 21 May and is 
current for interval  24-25 May. 
3. OUTLOOK (29 MAY - 28 JUNE)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
07-Jun,10-Jun to 13-Jun,21-Jun.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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