[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (15 May 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/0200Z MAY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (08 MAY - 14 MAY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
08 May  159      Normal            
MUFS:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


09 May  157      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values. 
      Spread F observed second half UT day.


10 May  157      Normal            
MUFS:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all
stations.


11 May  145      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 10-15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


12 May  124      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced 15% to depressed 15% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed
      15-30% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced 15% to depressed 15% at times.


13 May  129      Normal            
MUFS:
Mostly near predicted monthly values at all stations.


14 May  137      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to depressed
      10-20% at times.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 113
2. FORECAST (15 MAY - 21 MAY) 
MUFS: Depressed up to 15% at times for 15 May, otherwise
mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced. SWFs possible.
Propagation conditions: Normal-fair for 15 May, otherwise
mostly normal to enhanced. SWFs possible.
T index:  140

3. OUTLOOK (22 MAY - 21 JUNE)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible: 07-13 Jun.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060