[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (20 February 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/0200Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (13 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index   Conditions        
13 Feb  168      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Feb  155      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

15 Feb  176      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15 local day.
      Enhanced 65% local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

16 Feb  188      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

17 Feb  157      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

18 Feb  127      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-20% local day.
      Enhanced by 15% local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

19 Feb  135      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114
2. FORECAST (20 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY) 
MUFS: Near to 15% above predicted monthly values. SWFs probable.
Propagation conditions: Normal. 
T index:  160
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 19 February and 
is current for interval  20-22 February (SWFs) . A solar region with 
very good flare potential is nearing the centre of the solar disk. 
3. OUTLOOK (27 FEBRUARY - 29 MARCH)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
No signficant degraded periods expected.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060