[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (21 August 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/0200Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (14 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST)
Date   T index   Conditions        
14 Aug  132      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 95% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


15 Aug  137      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


16 Aug  141      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed late in UT day.


17 Aug  152      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 75% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


18 Aug  148      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25-45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


19 Aug  153      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some spread and absorption observed.


20 Aug  159      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Some Spread and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
2. FORECAST (21 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST) 
MUFS: Enhanced 15%.
Propagation conditions: Fair local night 21-22Aug , otherwise normal. 
SWFs probable early in week.
T index:  140
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on 18 August 
and is current for interval  19-21 August (SWFs) . 
3. OUTLOOK (28 AUGUST - 27 SEPTEMBER)
Mildly Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
28-Aug to 29-Aug,12-Sep,14-Sep to 15-Sep,19-Sep,24-Sep to 25-Sep.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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