[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (14 August 02)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/0200Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (07 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST)
Date   T index   Conditions        
07 Aug  102      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 15% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.


08 Aug  110      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


09 Aug  114      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


10 Aug  130      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


11 Aug  139      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


12 Aug  127      Normal-Fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Enhanced by 90% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


13 Aug  131      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
2. FORECAST (14 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST) 
MUFS: Near predicted monthly values. 
Propagation conditions: Normal. SWFs expected due to large
solar region currently on disk, and possible return of previously
flaring solar regions 17-18 Aug.
T index:  120
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 13 August 
and is current for interval  13-15 August (SWFs) . 
3. OUTLOOK (21 AUGUST - 20 SEPTEMBER)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
28-Aug to 29-Aug,12-Sep,19-Sep.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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