[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (11 April 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/0200Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (04 APRIL - 10 APRIL)
Date   T index   Conditions        
04 Apr  162      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


05 Apr  168      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


06 Apr  153      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


07 Apr  155      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


08 Apr  152      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


09 Apr  131      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 10 to 20% at the start of the UT day,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values afterwards,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


10 Apr  131      Normal            
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

COMMENT: Enhanced conditions were observed on 5 Apr following prior
	 geomagnetic disturbance. Depressed conditions are expected
	 for the first part of the forecasting period following
	 the arrival of two shocks associated to the recent M7.9
	 and X2.3 flares/full halo CMEs originating from the centrally
	 located region 9415. This region is now declining in growth
	 but is still magnetically complex. Further M- and X-class
	 flares can be expected.

Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120
2. FORECAST (11 APRIL - 17 APRIL) 
MUFS: Depressed conditions expected for 11-13 Apr.
      Mostly near monthly predicted values to enhanced afterwards.

Propagation conditions: Fair 11-Apr, 12-Apr, otherwise normal.
			SWfs probable early in week.
			PCA event in progress early in week.
T index:  130
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 23 was issued on 10 April
	 and is current for interval  11-13 April. 
3. OUTLOOK (18 APRIL - 18 MAY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
24-Apr,27-Apr to 28-Apr,
05-May,
12-May to 14-May,16-May.

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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