[Ips-whfpr] IPS Weekly Prop. Report (04 April 01)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/0200Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST
1. SUMMARY (28 MARCH - 03 APRIL)
Date   T index   Conditions        
28 Mar  147      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


29 Mar  175      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-45% during local day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35% during local day,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
  10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 29 03 2001 1715UT.


30 Mar  184      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Spread F and occasional absorption observed.


31 Mar  171      Fair-poor         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and strong absorption observed.
      10Mev Proton/PCA Event Ended 31 03 2001 0825UT.



01 Apr   89      Poor-fair         
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
      Absorption and spread F observed.


02 Apr  148      Fair-normal       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


03 Apr  164      Normal-fair       
MUFS:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near to 25% enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near to 25% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.
      Absortption observed.
   10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 03 04 2001 0015UT.

COMMENT: Strong flare and fadeout activity this week. Strong 
depression observed on 01 April following strong geomagnetic
disturbance on 31 march. Polar regions experienced increased
absorption from proton events.

A disturbance is expected on 05 April, however magnitude 
of disturbance could be reduced due to westward location 
of flaring region. 


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120
2. FORECAST (04 APRIL - 10 APRIL) 
MUFS: depressed 15-30% 05-06 April, following anticipated geomagnetic 
      activity. MUFs then 15% above normal.
Propagation conditions: Fair-Poor from late 04 April-06-Apr, otherwise 
      normal. SWFs expected.
T index:  90 05-06 April
	 155 rest week 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 3 April and 
is current for interval  4-6 April. 
3. OUTLOOK (11 APRIL - 11 MAY)
Degraded HF propagation conditions possible:
15-16-Apr

PEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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