[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 15 October - issued 2317UT/14-Oct-2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

Solar activity on UT day 15-Oct is expected to be at the R1-R2 level,
as two magnetically complex solar regions are currently on the solar
disk. S0, chance S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected. The
solar wind speed is expected to be moderate with an initial declining
trend as the recent influence of a coronal hole wind stream continues
to abate. The solar wind speed and the interplanetary magnetic field
are then expected to become enhanced due to the arrival of a weak CME
later in the UT day. G0-G1 conditions are expected on 15-Oct
associated with the weak CME arrival. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be initially normal, becoming fair. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region are expected to be
generally near predicted monthly values, with 15% depressions at times
for the southern Australian region. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au