[ips-sf] ASWFC Summary Forecast for 24 July - issued 2025UT/23-Jul-2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre]

A weak shock in the solar wind was observed at 23/1949UT. The
interplanetary magnetic field became orientated northward immediately
post shock arrival, currently reducing induced geomagnetic effects.
This shock has arrived earlier than expected. A large far side, non
Earth directed CME has been observed from 23/0036UT and is associated
with an ASWAS S1-Minor solar radiation storm, which is currently
declining towards event threshold. On UT day 23-Jul, solar activity is
expected to be R1 with a chance for R2. The solar wind speed is
expected to be light. Moderately enhanced solar wind conditions are
expected on 24-Jul due to an expected weak halo CME arrival. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected. G1-G2 conditions are expected on
24-Jul. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected. HF radio
communication conditions are expected to be normal. Maximum usable
frequencies are expected to be near predicted values to 15% enhanced.
Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible. Southern Australian
region HF communications may become moderately degraded during local
night hours on 24-Jul.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au