[ips-sf] SWS Summary Forecast for 11 July - issued 2338UT/10-Jul-2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc]

Solar activity was low on 10 July. A C8.6 flare was observed at 0059
UT from region 2564(N09E51). This flare was associated with a Type II
radio burst and a narrow cone non-earthward directed CME. Solar wind
stream continued to stay strong due to the coronal hole effect. This
coronal hole effect is expected to keep weakening through 11 July, but
the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from another coronal hole
is likely to start strengthening the solar wind stream from late hours
on 11 July. Hence solar wind stream is expected to continue to stay
strong on 11 and 12 July. Solar activity is expected to stay at very
low levels over the next three days (11, 12 and 13 July) with some
possibility of C-class activity and isolated M-class activity.
Geomagnetic activity showed increases to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods on high latitudes on 10 July. Despite high
solar wind speed, the geomagnetic activity did not rise too high as
IMF Bz did not turn too far south and did not stay southwards for long
enough intervals of time. The current coronal hole may keep
geomagnetic activity enhanced up to active levels on 11 July. The
possible effect of another coronal hole may enhance geomagnetic
activity from 11 July. Mostly quiet to active levels of activity may
be expected on 11 and 12 July with the possibility of isolated minor
storm periods. Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT
day 10 July. These MUF depressions seem to have eventuated due to
continued very low levels of ionising radiation and rise in
geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to moderate depressions in
MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are likely from 11 to 13 July
due to continued very low levels of ionising radiation and the
possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic activity levels during
this period.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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