[ips-sf] SWS Summary Forecast for 10 July - issued [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc]

Solar activity was low on 9 July. A C2.6 flare was observed at 1607 UT
from region 2564(N09E63). Solar wind stream continued to stay strong
due to the coronal hole effect. This coronal hole effect is likely to
keep the solar wind stream strong on 10 July as well. Solar activity
is expected to stay at very low levels over the next three days (10,
11 and 12 July) with some possibility of isolated C-class activity. A
high speed solar wind stream from another coronal hole may strengthen
solar wind parameters from 11 July. Geomagnetic activity showed
increases to unsettled to active levels with isolated minor storm
conditions on high latitudes on 9 July. Despite high solar wind speed,
geomagnetic activity did not rise to sustained minor storm levels as
IMF Bz did not stay southwards for long enough intervals of time. The
current coronal hole may keep geomagnetic activity enhanced up to
active levels on 10 July. The possible effect of another coronal hole
may enhance geomagnetic activity from 11 July. Mostly quiet to active
levels of activity may be expected on 11 and 12 July. Mild to moderate
MUF depressions were observed on UT day 9 July. These MUF depressions
seem to have eventuated due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation and rise in geomagnetic activity on this day. Minor to
moderate depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions are
likely from 10 to 12 July due to continued very low levels of ionising
radiation and the possibility of continued rise in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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