[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 04 January - issued 2352UT/03-Jan-2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc]

03/2337 Solar activity was at very low levels over the last 24 hours.
No shock from the CME of 2 January has been recorded yet. As mentioned
earlier there is less likelihood of the CME hitting the earth, but a
glancing blow may still not be completely ruled out on 4 January.
Solar wind speed varied mostly between ~420 and ~500 km/s today
whereas the Bz component of the IMF showed variations between +4/-5 nT
during this time. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected on
4,5 and 6 January. Solar wind stream may start getting stronger from 6
January as a coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective around
this time. Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels on 2 January. If the CME of 2 January proves to be
geoeffective, the geomagnetic activity may rise to active levels on 4
January. In case the CME does not hit the earth, mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions may be expected on 4 and 5 January. MUFs stayed
mostly close to the monthly predicted values on 3 January. Nearly
similar HF conditions may be observed for the next three days if the
geomagnetic activity remains at lower levels. There is some
possibility of rise in geomagnetic activity on 4 and 6 January. If
this rise in geomagnetic activity eventuates, minor to moderate
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be possible
on these days (4 and 6 January). Mostly normal HF conditions may be
expected on 5 January.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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