[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 04 January - issued 2337UT/03-Jan-2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc]

Solar activity was at moderate levels over the last 24 hours. No shock
from the CME of 2 January has been recorded yet. As mentioned earlier
there is less likelihood of the CME hitting the earth, but a glancing
blow may still not be completely ruled out on 4 January. Solar wind
speed varied mostly between ~420 and ~500 km/s today whereas the Bz
component of the IMF showed variations between +4/-5 nT during this
time. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected on 4,5 and 6
January. Solar wind stream may start getting stronger from 6 January
as a coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective around this time.
Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on 2
January. If the CME of 2 January proves to be geoeffective, the
geomagnetic activity may rise to active levels on 4 January. In case
the CME does not hit the earth, mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
may be expected on 4 and 5 January. MUFs stayed mostly close to the
monthly predicted values on 3 January. Nearly similar HF conditions
may be observed for the next three days if the geomagnetic activity
remains at lower levels. There is some possibility of rise in
geomagnetic activity on 4 and 6 January. If this rise in geomagnetic
activity eventuates, minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions may be possible on these days (4 and 6
January). Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected on 5 January.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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