[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 24 August - issued 0015UT/24-Aug-2015

[rwc]

Solar Active Region (AR) 2403 has produced a number of M and C class
flares during the past 3 days. There is small chance of a X class
flare from AR 2403, though the flux intensity from AR 2403 appears to
be on a declining trend. As AR 2403 continues to rotate towards a
geoeffective location, an Earthward directed CME and major geomagnetic
storm are possible next week. A less intense but long duration C2.2
flare has been observed at 23/2044, however, the possibility of an
associated earth-directed CME is to be confirmed. The geomagnetic
activity reached moderate storm levels over the last 24 hours due to
high speed solar winds emanating from the coronal hole (CH 684) taking
geoeffective position on the solar disk. Conditions for HF radio wave
propagation are still unusually depressed globally, but should
gradually strengthen during the 4-week interval approaching the
September equinox.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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