[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 22 November - issued 2330UT/21-Nov-2013

[rwc]

Ionospheric plasma densities have recently been unusually large at all
latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. These conditions are favourable
for HF radio communicators who can achieve greater area coverage and
exploit the improved bandwidth and signal-to-noise ratios provided by
higher operating frequencies. The ionospheric propagation support
peaked on 20 Nov and is expected to remain enhanced in comming days.
The ionospheric propagation support also peaked on 20 Nov in the year
2011, and again on 19 Nov in 2012. The propagation support during
November of 2011 was the strongest so far for the current solar
maximum, and the support has almost been as strong this November. The
remarkable timing of these peaks is related to elevated fluxes of
solar UV and X-ray flux combined with seasonal thermospheric
behaviour. Back on the Sun, the solar UV flux has been slowly trending
downward from its recent November peak and only weak C-class solar
flares are expected today. Active Region 1893 unleashed an M1.2 solar
X-ray flare peaking at 11:11 UT on 21 Nov, but the region was located
just beyond the south west limb and the associated CME is not
Earthward directed. The current 3 day outlook remains for moderate
solar wind conditions impacting Earth, and quiet geomagnetic
conditions.

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