[Ips-geo-warning] IPS GEOMAGNETIC WARNING

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS UPGRADED GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 03/51
ISSUED AT 30/0230Z OCTOBER 2003
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

A full halo CME, observed on 29 October, was associated
with the X10 flare observed at 2040UT/29 October. The CME 
is expected to arrive in the second half of 31 October 
(UT day) or early hours on 01 November (UT day). The CME 
activity is expected to raise the geomagnetic activity 
upto minor to major storm levels with possiblility of 
going upto severe storm levels at times. If the  north-
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) 
goes south, then the geomagnetic activity may be expected 
to go towards the higher side of the forecast. However, 
if Bz remains northwards, the lower side of the forecaste 
may be more appropriate. 

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 31 OCTOBER 2003 TO 01 NOVEMBER 2003
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 
31 Oct:  Unsettled to minor storm. Major storm possible.
01 Nov:  Minor to major storm. Severe storm possible. 



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