[Ips-geo-warning] IPS GEOMAGNETIC WARNING

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 03/25
ISSUED AT 18/2313Z JUNE 2003
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

A WEAK SHOCK WAS OBSERVED IN THE SOLAR WIND AT
0429UT ON 18 JUN. THIS SHOCK IS BELIEVED TO BE FROM
THE X1 FLARE OBSERVED LATE ON 15 JUN. ANOTHER
FLARE, AN M7, OBSERVED AT 2255UT ON 17 JUN, WAS ALSO 
ASSOCIATED WITH A MASS EJECTION. A GLANCING BLOW 
FROM THIS EJECTION IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UT DAY ON 20 JUN. THESE MASS EJECTIONS 
HAVE ORIGINATED FROM A SOLAR REGION IN THE SOUTH-EAST
QUADRANT OF THE SOLAR DISK. AS THIS REGION ROTATES
FURTHER ONTO THE SOLAR DISK, ANY FURTHER MASS EJECTIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE GEOEFFECTIVE.

ALSO, THE EARTH HAS ENTERED A CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND
STREAM DURING SECOND HALF OF UT DAY ON 18 JUN. ELEVATED
SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 3 TO 6 DAYS.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO BOTH CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
AND MASS EJECTION EFFECTS DURING INTERVAL 19-21 JUNE 2003
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 
19 Jun:  Unsettled to active with the chance of minor storm periods.
20 Jun:  active to minor storm, with the chance of major storm periods.
21 Jun:  active to minor storm, with the chance of major storm periods.



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