[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 September 26 issued 2332 UT on 06 Sep 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Sep 7 09:32:05 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 108/58 107/57
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Sep was at the R0 level,
with the largest flare of the day a C5.1 flare at 06/1042UT.
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. Active region (AR) 4524 (N12E27, alpha) was responsible
for the largest flare of the day and showed some development
of its trailer spot. All other ARs are small, magnetically simple
and either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 07-09 Sep, due to recent flare activity
from AR 4524. Solar radiation storm conditions were at the S0
level on 06-Sep, with the >10 MeV proton flux at GOES elevated
but in decline. S0 conditions with a chance of S1 are expected
on 07-Sep due to currently elevated proton flux. S0 conditions
are expected over 08-09 Sep. A CME associated with the C5.1 flare
at 06/1042UT was observed in STEREO-A imagery from 06/1053UT,
with associated eruption visible on the disk in SDO and GOES
SUVI imagery from 06/1043UT at around N10E30. An absence of SOHO
imagery over the relevant period makes analysing this CME difficult.
Preliminary analysis suggests this CME will impact Earth on 09-Sep
at 0800UT +/- 12 hours. Further analysis will be performed when
more imagery is available. The solar wind speed was steady at
background levels, mostly ranged between 330 and 380 km/s and
is currently at around 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +5 to -6 nT. An increase in solar wind speed is expected
on 07-Sep due to high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole. A further, slight, increase is expected on 08-Sep
due to anticipated glancing CME impacts from CMEs first observed
on 05-Sep. A larger increase is expected on 09-Sep due to the
arrival of a CME first observed on 06-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11100021
Cocos Island 1 10000011
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 2 11100111
Learmonth 2 11110021
Alice Springs 1 01100011
Gingin 2 11100021
Canberra 1 101000--
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11100021
Hobart 2 11100121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000010
Casey 10 34320122
Mawson 20 32111165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2322 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 10 G0
08 Sep 18 G0-G1
09 Sep 22 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed at the planetary
level and in the Australian region on UT day 06-Sep. Mostly G0
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with one period
of G1 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 06-Sep, G0-G1 conditions are expected over 08-09 Sep due to
a combination of coronal hole high speed wind stream effects,
an anticipated glancing CME impact on 08-Sep and an anticipated
CME impact on 09-Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1610UT 05/09, Ended at 2110UT 05/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 04-Sep were
mostly normal, with some mild degradations around the equator
during local night hours. HF radio propagation conditions are
expected to be similar to recent conditions over 06-08 Sep, with
the possibility of degradations at high latitudes over 07-08
Sep due to possible geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 66
Sep 62
Oct 60
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on
6 September and is current for 6-8 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted monthly values
over 06-Sep. Enhancements of up to 30% were observed at Perth
during local night hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart in
the hours preceding local dawn. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted values over 07-09 Sep, with depressions possible
at high latitudes over 08-09 Sep due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 76600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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