[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 October 26 issued 2330 UT on 22 Oct 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Oct 23 10:30:45 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 102/50 100/48
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 22-Oct was at the R0
level, with no significant flares observed. There are two Active
Regions (ARs) currently visible on the solar disk. AR 4560 (N15W40,
beta-gamma) is the largest and most magnetically complex region
on the solar surface. It has shown signs of mild spot growth
and continues to exhibit spot separation, accompanied by further
development of its intermediate spots. AR 4557 (N08W67, beta)
showed signs of mild decay as it continues to rotate towards
the western limb. R0 conditions, with a chance of R1, are forecast
over 23-25 Oct due to the size of AR 4560. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed throughout UT day 22-Oct, with
S0 conditions expected to persist over 23-25 Oct. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in the past 24 hours.
The solar wind speed on 22-Oct was moderate, declining from 480
km/s early in the day to its current value of 424 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) ranged from -7 to +6
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to slowly return to ambient
levels across 23-24 Oct as the high speed wind stream effects
from a narrow southern coronal hole abate. The solar wind environment
may become lightly enhanced on 25-Oct due to a potential glancing
impact of a CME first observed on 21-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 22233332
Cocos Island 9 12223332
Darwin 12 22233333
Townsville 9 0--33232
Learmonth 13 22233343
Alice Springs 10 12233332
Gingin 14 22333343
Canberra 11 22243322
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 23243332
Hobart 13 23243332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Casey 19 45333233
Mawson 60 44444486
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19 4422 2345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 13 G0
24 Oct 10 G0
25 Oct 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across UT day
22-Oct in the Australian region, with G0 conditions also reported
at the planetary level. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G4. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 23-25 Oct, with a chance of G1 on
25-Oct due to the potential arrival of a low-velocity CME observed
on 21-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
24 Oct Normal Normal Fair-normal
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
were fair over UT day 22-Oct, with degraded conditions observed
in the second half of the day, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere.
Conditions are forecast to be fair to normal on 23-Oct, before
trending toward normal over 24-25 Oct. Some mild degradations
are possible on 25-Oct due to potential geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 61
Oct 60
Nov 58
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 40 Near predicted monthly values
24 Oct 45 Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-Oct in
the northern Australian region were mostly near monthly predicted
values, with some enhancements observed during the 24-hour period.
MUFs in the southern Australian region were depressed by 15%
during local day and night, with depressions reaching 20% during
local dawn hours. Sporadic E was observed at Learmonth, Perth,
and Townsville, with Spread F also observed in Perth and Canberra.
MUFs are forecast to be near predicted monthly values over 23-24
Oct, with some depressions in the southern Australian region
possible during 23-Oct. Mild depressions are also possible on
25-Oct due to potential geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.58E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 432 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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