[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jul 31 09:30:10 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 1700UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 125/78
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 30-Jul reached the R1
level, with a long duration M1.9 flare from Active Region (AR)
4492 (N16W74, alpha) peaking at 30/1700UT, being the largest
observed. This region is one of eight sunspot regions on the
visible solar disk, and has remained mostly stable over the UT
day. AR 4498 (N15E37, beta) is currently the largest visible
region, and has exhibited some mild growth in trailing spots over
the past 24 hours. Nearby AR 4500 (N18E44, beta), as well as
regions 4499 (N04E06, beta) and 4501 (S09E05, beta) have also
experienced growth over the same period. All other regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast to
be at the R0-R1 level over 31-Jul to 01-Aug, due to the recent
flare activity of AR 4492. This is forecast to decline to R0
with a chance of R1 on 02-Aug as this region rotates over the
western limb. A high-velocity coronal mass ejection (CME) was
observed in Stereo-A from 30/1653UT following the long duration
flare, as well as a filament eruption in the vicinity of AR 4492
observed at 30/1600UT in GONG/H-alpha. Initial modelling of this
event has suggested that most of the ejecta will pass ahead of
the Earth, with a glancing impact at Earth forecast to arrive
at 02/0200UT +/- 12 hours. However, further modelling will be
completed once additional coronagraph data is available to better
constrain the trajectory of the CME. Solar radiation storm conditions
reached the S1 level at 30/1845UT, with the >10 MeV solar proton
flux rising following the previously mentioned M1.9 flare. S1
conditions are currently ongoing. S0-S1 solar radiation storm
conditions are forecast over 31-Jul to 01-Aug, due to the ongoing
effects of this event. S0-S1 conditions are forecast for 02-Aug,
due to the possible glancing impact of the CME associated with
this event. The solar wind was light over UT day 30-Jul, with
the solar wind speed ranging between 320-350 km/s throughout
the UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF,
Bt) peaked at 5 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging
between -1 and +4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
light over 31-Jul to 01-Aug, with a mild increase possible due
to a glancing impact of a CME first observed on 27-Jul. An increase
in the solar wind speed is forecast on 02-Aug, due to the possible
glancing arrival of a CME first observed on 30-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Cocos Island 1 10110000
Darwin 1 11100100
Townsville 2 12110101
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 11000100
Gingin 0 10000100
Canberra 1 11011000
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 11111000
Hobart 1 11011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 4 13211100
Mawson 6 42111200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2212 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 10 G0
01 Aug 7 G0
02 Aug 7 G1, chance of G2
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level over 30-Jul. G0 conditions were also reported
in the Antarctic region, as well as at the planetary level. G0
geomagnetic conditions are forecast over 31-Jul to 01-Aug. G1
geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G2, are forecast on
02-Aug due to possible effects of a glancing CME currently forecast
to impact Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Fair
02 Aug Fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
were mostly normal on UT day 30-Jul, with some mild degradations
observed at equatorial latitudes in the South American region.
Global HF propagation conditions are forecast to remain mostly
normal at equatorial and mid latitudes over 31-Jul to 01-Aug,
with fair conditions forecast due to potential polar cap absorption
due to elevated proton flux. Conditions are forecast to be fair
on 02-Aug, due to possible effects of a glancing CME currently
forecast to impact Earth on this day. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Aug 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Aug 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on 30-Jul were near predicted values, with enhancements
of 15-20% observed in the southern Australian region. Sporadic
E was observed at Canberra and Darwin, with spread-F observed
at Canberra, Darwin, Townsville and Learmonth. MUFs are forecast
to remain near predicted monthly values over 31-Jul to 01-Aug,
with enhancements of up to 15% possible over the period. Depressions
of 10-15% are possible on 02-Aug, with possible geomagnetic activity
forecast on this day. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 71200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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