[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jul 26 09:30:44 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 145/99


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jul             27 Jul             28 Jul
Activity     R0-R1              R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 25-Jul, 
with only low C-class flares observed. There are currently six 
active sunspot regions on the solar disk, with Active Region 
(AR) 4493 (N06W61) being the largest. This region has shown some 
decay in trailing spots over the previous UT day. A new small 
region has appeared at S25W04, and appears magnetically simple. 
All other regions are stable or in decay. Solar flare activity 
is forecast to be at the R0-R1 level on 26-Jul, due to the number 
of active regions currently on the disk. This is forecast to 
reduce to R0, with a chance of R1 over 27-28 Jul as these regions 
continue to show signs of magnetic simplification and decay. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 25-Jul, 
with the solar proton flux remaining at background levels. S0 
solar radiation storm conditions are forecast over 26-28 Jul. 
No coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph 
imagery over 25-Jul. The solar wind speed continued to slowly 
decline over the past UT day, as the effects of a previous coronal 
hole high speed wind stream continue to wane. The solar wind 
speed began the day at 540-550 km/s and is currently at 500 km/s. 
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 
5 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -4 
and +3 nT over the UT day. The solar wind is forecast to continue 
to decline over 26-Jul, before a small rise on 27-Jul due to 
a CME first observed on 24-Jul. The solar wind will then trend 
toward background levels on 28-Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111220
      Cocos Island         3   11110220
      Darwin               4   11211121
      Townsville           4   11111221
      Learmonth            5   11121230
      Alice Springs        4   11111230
      Gingin               4   10111230
      Canberra             2   00010220
      Kennaook Cape Grim   4   11011230
      Hobart               2   01011220    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     1   00020110
      Casey               10   33222232
      Mawson              21   23334261

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              54   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   4322 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jul     5    G0
27 Jul    21    G1
28 Jul    12    G0

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
at the G0 level on 25-Jul, with G0 conditions also reported at 
the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were recorded in the 
Antarctic region, with an isolated G2 interval reported at Mawson. 
G0 geomagnetic conditions are forecast during 26-Jul, rising 
to G1 on 27-Jul due to the glancing impact of a CME first observed 
on 24-Jul. G0 conditions are forecast on 28-Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Global high frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions 
on UT day 25-Jul were mostly normal across all regions. Global 
HF propagation conditions are forecast to remain mostly normal 
on 26-Jul, becoming fair on 27-Jul due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity. Conditions will then recover toward normal on 28-Jul. 
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jul    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      81
Jul      66
Aug      63

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jul    72    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul    60    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on 
25 July and is current for 25-26 Jul. Maximum Usable Frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 25-Jul were mostly 
near predicted values. Strong spread-F was observed at Canberra, 
Perth, and Learmonth during local night hours, and strong sporadic-E 
was observed in Hobart. MUFs are forecast to be near predicted 
monthly values on 26-Jul, with depressions of 15% forecast for 
27-Jul due to forecast geomagnetic activity. MUFs will then recover 
toward predicted values on 28-Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 585 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   187000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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