[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 July 26 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jul 26 09:30:44 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 25-Jul,
with only low C-class flares observed. There are currently six
active sunspot regions on the solar disk, with Active Region
(AR) 4493 (N06W61) being the largest. This region has shown some
decay in trailing spots over the previous UT day. A new small
region has appeared at S25W04, and appears magnetically simple.
All other regions are stable or in decay. Solar flare activity
is forecast to be at the R0-R1 level on 26-Jul, due to the number
of active regions currently on the disk. This is forecast to
reduce to R0, with a chance of R1 over 27-28 Jul as these regions
continue to show signs of magnetic simplification and decay.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 25-Jul,
with the solar proton flux remaining at background levels. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are forecast over 26-28 Jul.
No coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph
imagery over 25-Jul. The solar wind speed continued to slowly
decline over the past UT day, as the effects of a previous coronal
hole high speed wind stream continue to wane. The solar wind
speed began the day at 540-550 km/s and is currently at 500 km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at
5 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -4
and +3 nT over the UT day. The solar wind is forecast to continue
to decline over 26-Jul, before a small rise on 27-Jul due to
a CME first observed on 24-Jul. The solar wind will then trend
toward background levels on 28-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11111220
Cocos Island 3 11110220
Darwin 4 11211121
Townsville 4 11111221
Learmonth 5 11121230
Alice Springs 4 11111230
Gingin 4 10111230
Canberra 2 00010220
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 11011230
Hobart 2 01011220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00020110
Casey 10 33222232
Mawson 21 23334261
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 4322 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 5 G0
27 Jul 21 G1
28 Jul 12 G0
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at the G0 level on 25-Jul, with G0 conditions also reported at
the planetary level. Mostly G0 conditions were recorded in the
Antarctic region, with an isolated G2 interval reported at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are forecast during 26-Jul, rising
to G1 on 27-Jul due to the glancing impact of a CME first observed
on 24-Jul. G0 conditions are forecast on 28-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
27 Jul Fair Fair Fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global high frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
on UT day 25-Jul were mostly normal across all regions. Global
HF propagation conditions are forecast to remain mostly normal
on 26-Jul, becoming fair on 27-Jul due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Conditions will then recover toward normal on 28-Jul.
Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 72 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jul 60 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 68 was issued on
25 July and is current for 25-26 Jul. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 25-Jul were mostly
near predicted values. Strong spread-F was observed at Canberra,
Perth, and Learmonth during local night hours, and strong sporadic-E
was observed in Hobart. MUFs are forecast to be near predicted
monthly values on 26-Jul, with depressions of 15% forecast for
27-Jul due to forecast geomagnetic activity. MUFs will then recover
toward predicted values on 28-Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 585 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 187000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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